Tag Archives: Andre Colling

ISIL victories and Iraqi military weakness

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The swift pace of the ISIL advance in northern Iraq has taken everyone by surprise. On 10 June the ISIL launched a major assault on western Mosul which later led to the capture of most of the city. The pace of the ISIL victory was matched by the almost unbelievable collapse of the Iraqi police and military. Reports of mass desertions and withdrawals circulated all day and it seemed as if the Iraqi Army was nothing but a force in name only. Very little resistance was offered and by days end ISIL had launched incursions deep into Salah ad Din and Kirkuk governorates. The collapse of the military and police is, on one hand, not too surprising to persons familiar with the conditions they work under. The security forces work long hours, are poorly paid and resourced, lack access to good intelligence and have a generally weak leadership who are better at fleeing than taking the initiative. Desertions among low level police and military personnel have become an increasing phenomenon recently in light of growing militant activity since 2012. In the face of a committed, battle hardened, well-resourced and ideologically driven insurgency the security forces have had little to respond with.

The battle is not yet won, however, and ISIL still has much to do if it is to maintain control of its new found territory. Iraq does have elite forces, such as the Tigris Command and Golden Brigades, at its disposal. There are also the Shiite militias and pro-government tribes scatterred throughout the centre and south which Prime Minister al-Maliki can call upon. The military also has heavy weapons, armour and an air force with which it will use to defend its primary cities located along the Samarra to Kirkuk line. Further north, the Kurd Peshmerga forces are present and on heightened alert. They are well trained and confident and are likely to stop any ISIL advance towards its territory (it should be noted that ISIL are unlikely to seek to engage the Kurds at present). With this in mind ISIL planners may seek to advance before withdrawing to defendable positions in the north. They have already looted millions of dollars worth of government materiel, which will boost its insurgency for years to come. Retreating back to Mosul and holding the city from the inevitable counter-attack would seem to be a logical option. Then again, given the frailty the Iraqi forces have shown to date, the ISIL may well be emboldened to further their assault southwards, even towards the capital.


Article by Andre Colling, via The Roving Eye. Follow Andre @AndreColling

 

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Chief v Chief: Nigeria and Yemen

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Two of red24’s chief analysts, Andre Colling (AC) and Ryan Cummings (RC), go head-to-head in a Q&A covering Yemen’s increasingly likely slide towards failed state status and Boko Haram in Nigeria, respectively. The questions form part of a basic ‘key assumptions check’ and are typically used in the industry as a starting point when reassessing a security environment or the operational capability of an armed group. The answers also provide some insight into the respective security environments of each state.

Nigeria – The Boko Haram threat

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(AC) Ryan, Boko Haram is a prominent, well-funded and well-supported Islamist militant group, based in Nigeria. Why do you argue that it does not have an international focus and that its activity is only (and will only be) Nigeria-focused over the medium-term?

(RC) There is mounting evidence to suggest that Boko Haram has extended its operational footprint outside of Nigeria and may have infiltrated neighbouring countries, such as Niger and Cameroon. Nonetheless, both the sect’s rhetoric and operations suggest that Boko Haram remains a Nigeria-focused, grassroots organisation. In this regard, Boko Haram’s alleged expansion into neighbouring countries is congruent with the group’s domestic agenda, as this expansion has provided the sect with an operational environment in which it can train, recruit and even launch cross-border attacks into Nigerian territory. The status quo will likely endure until such time that the respective governments of Niger and Cameroon adopt a more hardline stance against Boko Haram interests, both within and outside of their respective borders.

(AC) What is the current level of regional security coordination between Nigeria and neighbouring countries?

(RC) To date, the level of security co-operation between Nigeria and its immediate neighbours has been limited to intelligence sharing and joint border patrols. However, these initiatives have been compromised by logistical problems, including staff shortages and poor communication networks. Nevertheless, there are increasing calls by Western governments for more robust regional co-operation, particularly the execution of joint military operations. I believe it will only be a question of time before such initiatives are undertaken.

(AC) What incentives, if any, are there for resource-poor states bordering Nigeria to co-operate against militants?

(RC) The longer the Boko Haram insurgency continues, the higher the risk that the sect could become entrenched within neighbouring countries and possibly export its insurgent operations to these territories. Moreover, an often overlooked aspect of the Boko Haram insurgency is the regional humanitarian crisis it is causing. Since early 2013, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has estimated that at least 470,000 people have been displaced by Boko Haram attacks and reciprocal military offensives in north eastern Nigeria. An estimated 60,000 of the aforementioned number have sought refuge in the neighbouring countries of Chad, Cameroon and Niger, placing a significant burden on areas already experiencing food and resource scarcities. Co-operation against militants among Nigeria’s neighbouring states could help prevent these effects.

(AC) What is the long-term outlook for Nigeria? Can the government end the insurgency?

(RC) I believe that the Nigerian government can end the Boko Haram insurgency, provided that it is willing to change its current counterinsurgency strategy. To date, Nigeria has relied on a military solution to the insurgency, which is problematic, given that the Nigerian armed forces are lacking the requisite resources, training and manpower for such a strategy. In this regard, the country will likely require external assistance, both in the form of training and funding, in order to ensure that the military has the knowledge, numbers and equipment for the execution of successful counterinsurgency operations.

However, most critically will be Nigeria’s willingness to address the structural socio-economic problems that are fuelling the insurgency. By addressing issues such as poverty, unemployment and corruption, which are considered systemic in the country’s north, the government could drain Boko Haram’s grassroots support, upon which the longevity of the sect’s insurgency is dependent. In short, the government needs to make a better offer to the people than any offer from Boko Haram. Until the sect is forced into a position in which negotiation, and not violence, is the primary means of addressing its grievances, Boko Haram will continue to persist with the deadly efficacy it has demonstrated to date.

Yemen – The potential failed state

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(RC) Andre, you argue that Yemen is on a path towards failed state status. Is this assessment valid, given the success of the recent National Dialogue Conference?

(AC) I think so. The National Dialogue achieved some limited success, but as recent conflict in the north, persistent tribal violence in the east and Islamist extremist agitation in the south east demonstrate, it has not achieved immediate results. In addition to these challenges, oil income has diminished and the economy is heaving under enormous pressure and reliance on foreign aid. The government is essentially in a state of flux and prone to further instability.

(RC) You touch on the issue of the presence of non-state armed groups that operate within the country. In this regard, who are the major groups?

(AC) There are a number of groups. The Shiite Houthis in the north, AQAP in the east, Harak militants in the south and, of course, the various tribal groupings, most of which are well armed. There are also numerous political parties which have an armed support base, including al-Islah, arguably the strongest opposition group in the country.

(RC) Are any of these groups interconnected and, if so, how do these relationships influence the power dynamic within the country?

(AC) Many, if not most, of these groups share certain ‘commonalities’. For example, there is evidence to suggest that some tribesmen are working with AQAP (in kidnapping operations) and that AQAP members have inter-married with tribes’ people, in order to cement alliances and secure operational ‘space’. Some political parties and tribal groupings are also loosely allied. Al-Islah has a close connection to the al-Ahmer tribe, which is in turn the dominant force in the Hashid Tribal federation. The Hashid comprises a number of smaller tribal groupings who are loyal to opponents of al-Islah and al-Ahmer, such as the Houthis. The government also runs a patronage system through its Ministry of Tribal Affairs, which allegedly pays off certain tribal figures in return for their allegiance or neutrality. The security forces are also split in many areas along tribal lines, while many politicians have split allegiances. Typically, one is loyal to one’s family, tribe, religious order, party and, usually lastly, the state. So in summary, these groups are connected through a complicated mix where alliances are frequently forged or broken in response to political and security developments.

(RC) Are there any discernible shifts in the current alliances which could worsen or improve Yemen’s political and security outlook within the short- to medium-term?

(AC) Discerning shifts in alliances remains a difficult undertaking. While small shifts are frequently occurring in response to security and political developments, major alliance shifts occur less frequently. The last major upheaval occurred in 2011, when elements within the army withdrew support from then-president, Ali Saleh. However, even this split was accepted as a likely outcome, given the entrenched differences that already existed within the ‘unified military command’ and political hierarchy. Similarly, any major political development over the near-term will act to further destabilise and polarise Yemen. Such triggers could include a high-profile political assassination that undermines the recent political gains, or a major advance or capture of territory by one of the major non-state armed groups.

Follow Ryan @Pol_Sec_Analyst and Andre @AndreColling

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Tourists targeted in Egypt – New Tactic?

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Egypt: Tourists targeted in bombing in Taba, read full analysis here

A suicide bomber entered a tourist bus near Taba and the Egypt-Israel border, in Egypt’s South Sinai governorate, on 17 February and detonated his explosives. The blast resulted in the deaths of three South Korean tourists and an Egyptian national. A number of other South Korean tourists were also wounded as a result. The attack was later claimed by the Sunni Islamist and al-Qaeda-linked group, Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM). In a statement claiming responsibility for the attack, the group also stated that ‘With God’s will we will be watching this treacherous gang of infiltrators and we will target their economic interests in all places in order to paralyse their hands from hurting Muslims’. On 18 February, the group also purportedly threatened to target tourists if they did not leave the country by 20 February.

The attack against an overtly tourist target represents a significant development and may point to a new tactic by non-state armed groups in Egypt, who are agitating for the overthrow of the military-backed interim government.

Analysis by Andre Colling, follow him @AndreColling

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Interview with Andre Colling: Threat Forecast Project Manager

Andre Colling

The red24 Threat Forecast 2014 will be released on 9 December 2013. This yearly global forecast is created by our team of analysts, each focusing on their respective region of expertise. Spearheading the project is MENA Chief and red24 veteran analyst, Andre Colling.  The following interview attempts to get a glimpse into the analytical process that goes into forecasting the future of global security.

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BL – Hi Andre, can you please tell us why red24 is creating the threat forecast and what your role in the process is?

AC – The Threat Forecast is a red24 Analyst Department project. It is initiated annually to promote our department’s analytical ability and provide our clients with a document that can serve as the basis for their planning in the year ahead. My role is twofold. I have managed this year’s forecast project, from conceptualisation to the final document, and am involved in writing, specifically for the Middle East and North Africa section, my particular area of expertise.

BL – It has been said that forecasting future events is often like searching for a black cat, which may not even exist, in an unlit room. What approach do you and your team take in determining if the elusive black cat exists and how do you find it in the dark room of uncertainty that is the future?

AC – That is a very good question! Most companies and analysts are quite confident in their ability to predict risks; however, this view and position is slightly unfocused and is usually openly presented to satisfy and interest current or potential clients. Black Swan events (to add another animal to the mix) such as the Arab Spring show that we cannot always predict what will happen in the future. Our role, rather, is to identify trends and to make the best guess as to how we see events and issues developing. At red24 our assessments are based on extensive research and constant critique of our base assumptions and the information that is presented to us via media and academia. The Threat Forecast does not pretend to know exactly what will happen; rather, it  is designed to give readers a likely outcome of risks in key areas in the year ahead. red24 is all about partnership, not one-off risk assessments, and our assessments are ever changing. This is something our clients appreciate, I think.

BL – How do you decide which stories will be included in the forecast?

AC – The Chief Analysts of each region are asked to provide a list of countries and issues they feel are the most significant and likely to affect the security and political environment in 2014. Following a discussion between senior analysts a list is produced and the writing process begins. Generally, stories that are included dominate the news or are expected to do so in the year ahead, and concern states that are dominant and drivers of stability or instability. In some cases we include stories that we think our clients will be most interested in. This year we have quite a few stories which the general media have largely ignored but which we feel are of interest to our clients and affect the security environments of the respective states in a significant manner.

BL – What will the difference be between the 2014 forecast and the 2013 forecast, besides content?

AC – This year we have a new threat forecast ‘microsite’. The information on the PDF will be replicated on this site, which is much easier to navigate and user friendly.

BL – How confident are you in the accuracy of the 2014 forecast?

AC – Now you’ve put me on the spot. I am very confident that the information we have included is based on diligent research, reflects the security risks and is relevant. I will now remain firmly on the fence.

BL – While leading the 2014 forecast, have you gotten any new ideas that you wish to include in next year’s 2015 forecast?

AC – Expect some changes to the way our maps, graphs and images are presented… We may include more issues and stories in the next version.

BL – Do you have any general, or forecast related advice for budding young analysts, political scientists and global security enthusiasts?

AC – Humility and diligent and thorough research are key to succeed in this industry. Assumptions are the rot that can undermine any assessment or piece of analysis. Always reconsider your stated position(s) and assumption(s) either internally or with colleagues. To senior analysts, never underestimate the power and value of new ideas from junior analysts.

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Pre-register for the Threat Forecast 2014 and be one of the first to receive it on 9 December – https://www.red24.com/nonmembers/threat-forecast.php

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Andre Colling on 19 November bombing in Beirut

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Link: Andre Colling on 19 November bombing in Beirut

Brief analysis from our Chief MENA analyst, Andre Colling, on the suicide bombing and car bomb detonated outside of the Iranian embassy in Lebanon’s capital, Beirut, on 19 November.

Follow Andre on Twitter @AndreColling

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red24 2014 Threat Forecast coming soon

WATCH THIS SPACE 

Our analysts are currently working their magic on the 2014 red24 Global Threat Forecast.

To join the discussion, visit our Facebook page or our Linked in Discussion group, London Risk Professionals Group or chat with the guy in charge, Andre Colling via Twitter @AndreColling.

Also check out last year’s 2013 Forecast here.

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